Brexit: Breaking up (The UK) is (Not) Hard to Do
Brexit means Break-Exit, where “Break” means Breaking up the United Kingdom. Breaking up is hard to do and won’t be pleasant. Westminster may soon have to choose between exiting the EU and preserving the United Kingdom. Scotland and Northern Ireland are on separate trajectories and voices are being raised advocating a united Ireland. The recent resignation of Martin McGuiness may delay triggering of Article 50 since the Supreme court has till to rule whether Ireland, and possibly Scotland and Wales have to approve Brexit and are expected to rule on this soon.
The Supreme Court Could still Matter
If the court rules Northern Ireland must approve Brexit, triggering of article 50 may be delayed by several months since Sinn Fein are refusing to nominate a replacement for him which would mean a snap election that could result in a Sinn Fein Majority perhaps with a mandate for reunification with Eire, or it could result in a strongly anti Brexit Parliament.
If the court rules Northern Ireland and the other allegedly equal partners in the UK (Scotland and the Principality of Wales) do not need to be consulted the demand for reunification will grow. The Northern Ireland election is likely to return a pro unification majority and Theresa May will see Northern Ireland waving goodbye. If it remains part of the United Kingdom the Good Friday agreement is threatened by Brexit.
If the Supreme Court rules Northern Ireland must approve Brexit it is hard to see how they could avoid giving this right to Scotland and Wales. David Cameron, recently dethroned as Britain’s worst Prime Minister, refused to grant this right to England’s three colonies in all but name, which would have prevented the current legal, constitutional and political mess but angered UKIP and the Eurosceptic portion of the Nazty Party. The right wing press would have suffered apoplexy talking, through their swollen red faces about tails wagging dogs, ignoring the irony that British Bulldogs currently lack tails, and asking how a minority could over rule the majority.
If the Supreme court decides Scotland does not have to approve Brexit those Unionists who want to stay in the EU will have to reconsider their position. The Scottish accounting units of the Tories and Labour will certainly back the London Head Orifice which will mean they have done so many U-Turns so rapidly they have become the fans the Brexit excrement will hit.
Labour vote with Tories again Shock Horror Yawn
The Tory-Labour grand coalition against Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, not to mention Gibraltar (oops, mentioned it) voted in committee to deny a veto over Brexit to the devolved assemblies in three of the other countries that are allegedly equal partners in the UK . Since this was a committee vote not a full vote of the self selected Parliamentary elite the Supreme Court could still rule that the devolved assemblies must approve Brexit. If so we will see the Blue-UKIP-Red-UKIP coalition voting to change the law.
Brexit will extinguish Human rights
Unionists who believe in Human Rights will also have to reconsider as it should now be obvious that the Pry Minister, having established a level of surveillance that would have made The KGB, their imperial predecessors the Okhrana, the Stasi and secret police throughout history glow emerald green with envy. Their dissatisfaction will be heightened by the case of the whistle blower currently in jail who has been sentenced to another two years by a secret court with the charges and evidence being kept secret . This is England, not a medieval relic like Saudi Arabia or a nominally failed state like Sudan. England, the land of fair play, open justice, freedom and has Bridges, The NHS and Schools to sell you.
Labour and Tories against Scotland
The “leader” of Scottish Labour proposed a federalisation of the United Kingdom, very like that which former and also unelected Prime Minister Gordon Brown promised, with no authority, before the 2015 referendum. This was a sensible idea, though perhaps too close to the Scottish Governments’s proposal for a differentiated Brexit, which would have almost been Independence in all but name. It suffered from two major weaknesses: The Labour party is just about unelectable in Scotland and the supreme leader of the Labour party, when told about it, responded in puzzled tones that indicated rejection as well as a certain degree of ignorance of life outside Westminster.
The Scottish Tory Party having u-turned on support for remaining in the single market also wants to abolish anything that is free: Free Prescriptions, Free Education, Free care for the Elderly, Free bus travel for the Elderly and disabled, free speech, free air, free thought……… As the official opposition in Holyrood perhaps they should concentrate on the day job not keep on about a second referendum which has been ruled out in the short term.
Independence:Scenarios and timings
Brexit has unleashed powerful forces that are tending to break up the United Kingdom. Nothing lasts unchanged for ever and the United Kingdom will either die or change beyond recognition. It would require a far better politician than Theresa May or any one else alive to day to preserve the United Kingdom as it is. The most likely outcome is that it will die, possibly being replaced, as was the Soviet Union, by a small, short lived, Confederation of Independent States which will then dissolve. If it changes Scotland will probably have de facto independence soon to be replaced by real independence.
Scotland may gain independence through a referendum honoured by Westminster, UDI or by being ejected from the United Kingdom  . It looks like a referendum is inevitable, UDI is too risky, though there is now a good chance that Ireland, and probably the EU will recognise Independent Scotland, with or without a referendum, with Scotland being offered fast track EU membership. There is also the chance that Westminster will eject Scotland from the UK.
Given the rise of anti-Scottish feeling in England it is entirely possible that Theresa May or her successor will come under pressure to remove Scotland from the Brexit mess. One way to do this would be to push Scotland towards UDI (as she seems to be doing now) then, like a manager accepting the resignation of their least favourite subordinate, wave Scotland a tearful goodbye while secretly dancing for joy. We may even see UKIP campaigning for Scotland to be ejected from the UK blind to the irony of this position. Since England depends on Scotland for a lot of things from oil to the supply of brains and talent, both of which the the English have deprecated (to put it mildly) since the reign of George II  , this is an unlikely scenario, though it is becoming less unlikely since anti-Scottish feeling is rising and emotion will Trump reason every time.
Another Referendum: Timing and Preparation
There is a chorus of voices suggesting mid to late 2018 as the time for a second independence referendum. If the issues that defeated the YES movement in 2014 can be resolved and the Mainstream Media continue their gradual thaw towards Independence the result should be a yes vote. But nothing is certain so campaigning is starting now while the Common Weal, a pro independence think tank, is producing white papers that will address these issues and are producing a road map for an independent Scotland.
We can but hope and work for the end goal: a better Scotland. Independence will only be the first and easiest step.