Why Donald Trump Will Win Reelection in 2020

Updated on October 11, 2019
TimArends profile image

Despite most polling data, Tim Arends successfully predicted in 2016, two weeks before the general election, a big win for Donald Trump.

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Donald Trump will win reelection in 2020. This forecast is not based on variable and inherently unpredictable factors like polls, the state of the economy, or whoever wins the Democratic nomination for president. It is based on historical trends as well as fundamental differences in the philosophy of the Republican and Democratic parties, and why the philosophy of the Republicans meshes much better with that of the American people.

The main reasons why Trump will win in 2020 have to do with shifting attitudes within the Democratic Party during the past decade. But before we get into that, let us look at some of the smaller factors, as well as some of the things that I think will turn out not to be much of a factor at all.

Factor 1: The Opposition

Though I think this will be important, I do not think the primary reason Trump will win is the incredibly weak slate of candidates the Democrats are putting up. It is still early in the campaign season as this is being written, but so far the top two Democrats are Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Biden is already being portrayed as "too old" and even "racist," while Warren has embarrassed herself by claiming to be Native American and then releasing her DNA test showing her to be almost 100% white Caucasian. Neither candidate is likely to prove to be a tough challenger to Trump, either in the debates or otherwise.

Factor 2: Economy

Although the economy is doing well currently, it could take a turn for the worse before November 2020. Even so, I do not think there is enough time for it to go south before the election, and even if it does, most voters realize economic upswings and downturns are cyclical. During the first three years of the Trump administration, at least, the economy has been doing well, despite the predictions of many.

Factor 3: Satisfaction

What if Trump disappoints his base? This could always happen; Trump could fail to make sufficient progress on the wall before the election or he could make some bad compromise on guns with the Democrats that greatly disappoints his base. Even so, I do not think this will be disastrous (although I still hope and expect it not to happen). Most conservatives realize the alternative—that is, a Democrat gaining the White House—will be far, far worse.

Factor 4: Historical precedent

Another reason Trump will win (although still not the major reason) is that over the last three presidential administrations, there has been a trend by the American people to let the sitting president serve out two full terms in office. This trend spans over three separate administrations for a period of over a quarter of a century. Consider the last three presidential administrations:

  • Bill Clinton (Democrat): Two terms
  • George W. Bush (Republican): Two terms
  • Barack Obama (Democrat): Two terms

It seems unlikely that Trump will break this trend.

Factor 5: Phony Scandals

As soon as Trump won the 2016 presidential election, Democrats announced their desire to have him impeached. First they dragged the country through the "Russian collusion" hysteria for over two years, and when that fell through, they simply switched to the Trump "Ukraine scandal" instead. These endless "scandals" are merely going to foster resentment towards the Democrat party on the part of the American public, who will largely see through their motivations. Besides, the fact that Democrats need impeachment to remove Trump is a tacit admission that they know he will win in 2020.

Factor 6: Democrats' Self-Hatred

A big reason for a Democratic loss is that the Democratic front runners apparently don’t believe they are qualified to run the country!

Take Beto O’Rourke, for example. He admitted that Democrats were looking for a woman or a non-white as a nominee, and that was part of the problem—not the Democrats' attitude, but the fact that he was a white man!

In fact, he said that if people choose to vote against him because of his race or gender, “that’s a very legitimate basis upon which to make a decision.“ How can you possibly win the presidency if you don’t believe in yourself—if you believe that your race or sex disqualifies you for the presidency?

Democrats were in a virtual euphoria when Obama was elected.
Democrats were in a virtual euphoria when Obama was elected. | Source

Democrats' View of America in the Obama Era

But the big reason the Democrats will lose is that their party has a fundamental pessimism about the United States of America. How can you win if you don’t believe in the country you’re running for?

It was not always so. When Barack Obama was elected, the Democrat party was at it’s highest point of euphoria in perhaps decades. Remember that Obama‘s campaign slogan was "Hope and Change."

When Obama was running for president, Democrats had great optimism, and they spread that optimism to the rest of America. Just recall some of the quotes from celebrities and media pundits after Obama announced his candidacy, won the nomination and was elected.

Celebrities' and Journalists' Words on Obama's Election

“He is a community organizer like Jesus was. And now, we’re a community and he can organize us.” —Actress Susan Sarandon

“He’s like Gandhi or something. He’s got that powerful, soulful thing in him.” —Actor Alan Cumming

“I was there at the Mall. [It was] the feeling of millions of people all there sending positive energy and having hope together.” —Actress Anne Hathaway

“It’s the end of a shameful history of our relationship to African-Americans.” —Actress Ellen Burstyn

(Did you get that? “It’s the end of a shameful history.” But today, from hearing Democrats speak, you would think that race-relations are more shameful than they’ve ever been before.)

It wasn’t just celebrities. Look at some quotes from news anchors and pundits:

“Obama is a rock star.” —NBC’s Andrea Mitchell during MSNBC’s 2004 convention coverage.

“He’s the Tiger Woods of the Democratic Party right now.” —ABC’s George Stephanopoulos

“I have to tell you, you know, it’s part of reporting this case, this election, the feeling most people get when they hear Barack Obama’s speech. My — I felt this thrill going up my leg. I mean, I don’t have that too often.” —MSNBC’s Chris Matthews

It’s easy to forget the fervor just over 10 years ago when Obama was inaugurated. It was a “historic moment.” The Washington, DC public schools declared Inauguration Day a holiday. At least one university suspended classes for three hours during the ceremony and set up projection televisions in the basketball arena so that students could watch it.

Big corporations also jumped on the Obama bandwagon. Budweiser came out with a new American Ale it called “Inaugur Ale,” Obama was the guest star in Marvel Comics’ Amazing Spider-Man Number 583. Ice cream makers Ben and Jerry’s, coffee giant Starbuck’s, Southwest Airlines, and donut maker Krispy Kreme all came out with products or promotions tied to the Obama inauguration. Pepsi even changed its logo temporarily to resemble the “O” logo from the Obama campaign, accompanied by its “Refresh Our Nation” slogan.

The American flag today is in tatters in the view of the Democrats
The American flag today is in tatters in the view of the Democrats | Source

Democrats' View of America in the Trump Era

How times have changed! The big reason why the Democrats will fail to regain the presidency in 2020 is simply this: the Democrat party has gone from the party of hope, optimism, and excitement to the party of pessimism, disgust, and resentment.

In contrast with Actress Ellen Burstyn’s “It’s the end of a shameful history of our relationship to African-Americans,” Joe Biden said in a speech to Al Sharpton’s National Action Network in January 2019 that “systematic racism“ has been “built into every aspect of our system.“ Apparently, he means that racism has been built into the very foundation of America, that it’s part of America’s very being.

Beto O’Rourke said in an interview with MSNBC, “This country has been racist as long as it’s been a country.“ In other words, America is apparently a fundamentally “racist“ nation, not a fundamentally good country that merely has elements or holdovers of racism in it. There’s a big difference between the two!

In a speech in Arkansas, O’Rourke, as part of his campaign relaunch, said that the United States of America, “though we would like to think otherwise, was founded on racism, has persisted in racism, and is racist today.” Donald Trump is apparently the racist-in-chief, and presumably, anyone who votes for him is just as bad.

Making matters worse is the incredibly divisive issue of reparations for the slavery of the distant American past. All of the major Democrat candidates have come out in favor of reparations. Apparently, all white Americans—every one of them, even those who came here after slavery ended—are a party to this evil, and so every one of them must pay reparations to African-Americans.

The issue of reparations for slavery may be the most divisive issue since slavery itself.
The issue of reparations for slavery may be the most divisive issue since slavery itself. | Source

Today's Democratic Message

So here is the Democrat message: America was founded not on the principles of liberty and the Constitution, but on racism and white nationalism, and the country is steeped in these things—perhaps America is racist at its very core!

Think of what this says about the American people! If they don’t vote or think the way the Democrats do, they must be inherently bad people as well! Or, as Hillary Clinton put it, “a basket of deplorables … racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic – you name it.” How can you possibly win a campaign based on insulting and smearing many of the very people you hope to vote for you?

This is not an optimistic message—it is a profoundly negative, pessimistic and—dare I say it—hateful message.

New Levels of Pessimism

Now, to be honest, when one party is out of power, it always tends to portray the state of the country in a pretty poor light during a presidential election season. But this campaign is different. Democrats no longer see America as a fundamentally good country that has strayed off the path of wisdom. Rather, they see it as a fundamentally bad country that was founded on unjust principles ("racism," "sexism," "xenophobia," etc.) and must be completely deconstructed, then remade from the ground up in the Democrats’ image.

Americans are in inherently optimistic people. To carve a great nation out of the wilderness requires a heroic attitude of optimism. Americans are not drawn to pessimistic messages or pessimistic views of the country.

Source

Trump Better Represents America

Why is it important that Trump wins reelection? Because nothing less is at stake than the very soul of America (I think both liberals and conservatives might agree with this statement).

When one political party is in power for a long time, as the Democrat party was for the eight years of Obama, it’s easy to be corrupted. (If the GOP was in power for too long, the same thing could happen).

But the bigger problem is that the Democrat party no longer seems to believe in America. Forget the “shining city on a hill“ vision of America once held by Ronald Reagan. The Democrats increasingly no longer consider America to be a great country. They think of it as a country with a terrible history—one that was “founded on racism, built on racism, and continues to be racist to this day,” in the words of Beto O’Rourke.

Many Democrats openly state that a large percentage of the American people are just plain bad people—racist, bigoted, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic, white nationalist, white supremacist, etc.

How can you govern a nation and a people who you think are morally bankrupt? How can you represent all the people when you think many of them are really bad people who are worthy of contempt? How can you represent a country that you are not proud of?

This is the existential threat now facing the Democrat party. Through their rhetoric, they are showing not only a lack of patriotism, love, and respect for the country they wish to govern, but a fundamental contempt for it and the people who make it up. And that is the reason why Donald Trump not only will win a second term, but why he must.

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    • fpherj48 profile image

      Paula 

      3 weeks ago from Beautiful Upstate New York

      Now.....if I was a looney lib....looking to impeach you......I'd say, "Look look at Don....he's pushing chill-pills!! Did you know he's a drug dealer?? IMPEACH!!! No, not Donald Trump....Don Shepard!

      I agree I am something else. I appreciate your manners by not mentioning what that something is.

    • hard sun profile image

      Don Shepard 

      3 weeks ago

      Paula, take care. You are something else as they say around here...lol. Stay realistic, grounded, and fair minded...meanwhile, take a chill pill.

    • fpherj48 profile image

      Paula 

      3 weeks ago from Beautiful Upstate New York

      Yes, of course I can be passionate about a lot of things.....I can only hope that most of us find passion in many areas of our lives. I see no need to apologize nor explain myself for any of this.

      Oops! I see you feel that Angie "misinterpreted" your post.....similar to how you misread me? Proof positive that it can happen.

      Angie is absolutely correct on how you have expressed yourself about the party you claim to be attached to....? Frankly, Don, perhaps you haven't ENOUGH of that passion you mention. I actually do not blame you for standing a bit in the Democratic shadows. All these people who are "walking away" from liberal politics, are beginning to run as fast as they can just to be distanced from the Mad Mob of Washington.

      Just LOOK at them! Obsessive is the correct word, Angie! They've reached a level of insanity with the Impeachment push....and now, Kavanaugh too.....Kavanaugh again!! Tell me Maxine Waters is not the epitome of a Mad Woman? Schiff, Nadler, Schumer??? These people are beyond obsessed......more like possessed.

      Don...because I am a realistic & fair-minded ole Granny, I accept your apology.....but as I tell my 14 grandchildren, "Don't let it happen again." (there's where you're suppose to chuckle!)

      I never, for one second, forget I am an American!

    • abwilliams profile image

      A B Williams 

      3 weeks ago from Central Florida

      You are right, you didn't personally call for his impeachment, I should not have assumed you wished for it, just because it is an obsession with the left. Take care.

    • hard sun profile image

      Don Shepard 

      3 weeks ago

      Once again A B Williams, where did I say any of these things?

      This is what I wrote: "If a real conservative were to actually beat Trump in the primaries, which I know is highly unlikely especially since some states are refusing to even put any opponent on the ballot, he or she may garner my support depending on the Democrat candidate."

      Not everyone likes Trump. That seems to be the issue here. I wish you all the best. I also never said anything about impeachment. I'm not sure where you are getting these things.

    • abwilliams profile image

      A B Williams 

      3 weeks ago from Central Florida

      Wow AB...no WOW hard sun/Don, you admit your party is lost, but you'll not fight for it, you'll not stand up to the radical left, separate yourself from the pack and stand apart!

      Apparently, it's much easier to glom on and join in with the attacks on this President and shout impeachment for reasons...no one knows or understands!! You can't have it both ways, admit your party is screwed up, but then explain it all away with yet another shot at our President. Good day!

    • hard sun profile image

      Don Shepard 

      3 weeks ago

      Wow..AB Williams. It's interesting that people take whatever they want out of what they read or hear. I don't like the President or the direction the Democratic party is going. What is so difficult to understand? Take care.

      Paula. I understand your position. That is what democracy is about. Apologies that I took you the wrong way. It's difficult to take it any other way when you state "the Dems should all be ashamed of themselves."

      Maybe I should just state that you come off as very passionate. Seriously, I did not mean to offend.

      I still think my main point stands however. We forget we are all Americans. Take care.

    • profile image

      AB Williams 

      3 weeks ago

      Hi Paula, thanks for elaborating.

      I found it “interesting” that hard sun agrees that the Democratic Party is an epic failure, but apparently accepts it as he goes on to double down on bashing the President instead. It’s interesting, I have no other explanation.

    • fpherj48 profile image

      Paula 

      3 weeks ago from Beautiful Upstate New York

      Don....First, let me say that I hope Tim will tolerate us having a discussion on his thread. If not, I apologize to him and he does have the option to delete, so I'll respond to your comment.

      This being our first encounter (that I can recall over 8 years) we do not know one another and certainly know next to nothing about our thoughts, opinions and/or beliefs. I am well aware we are "um.....AMERICANS." I need not be reminded of this simple, obvious fact. THIS female American registered Independent for most of her adult life. I voted for my CHOICE of candidate for the reasons I felt worthy and valid at the time. None of this is any secret to anyone who does KNOW me. I have no secrets. I'm fairly proud and confident in my entire history. I voted for Barack TWICE.....what a difference a Presidential reign makes..

      This last time...2016, I, like the rest of us (AMERICANS,) had 2 choices, one less attractive than the other. I have also openly admitted more than once on this very writer's site that I am by no means a Trump fan~~ never was and probably have no intention of being one. I saw my choice as being: 1.) not voting at all or 2.) a vote for Trump. The "other" candidate, in my sincere opinion and vast wisdom....is the single-most corrupt, disgusting, diabolical, sleaze-bag ever, on the face of this earth. She exudes toxins from every pore of her fat, ugly body. I don't think I need to clarify further and I won't.

      At least half of all the people I love dearly in my life are DEMOCRATS....as were my own precious parents. If you'll read my prior comment over, you might realize I am referring to "politicians, candidates, the biased news sources who speak for them...etc." NOT the average Dem on the streets. I do now present as a Conservative but do not agree 100% nor worship them all. That's a ridiculous notion to suspect by anyone..about anyone else.

      So....you have misinterpreted my intent and the basic gist of my comment. No, Don, we are not suddenly screwed.....we have been screwed for quite a while now, in terms of OUR MORON LEADERS...past, present, in Congress, etal! That's MY opinion and I take it as seriously as any other person takes their own opinions...Thank you. You have no idea how "WAY too seriously" I am or am not.

      And by the way, young man....I'm as CHILL as a cucumber!

    • hard sun profile image

      Don Shepard 

      3 weeks ago

      Hi Paula. Most Americans aren't Democrats or Republicans, they are um Americans first. I think the real problem is that the Trump supporters and the more radical left all just need to take a chill pill. Our nation made it through all kinds of bad times. Now, all of a sudden, we are screwed. Why? If this is true, it is only because some peole are taking things WAY too seriously. Meanwhile, the majority of Americans are in the middle just wanting people to chill out. Telling an entire faction of Americans they should be ashamed of themselves for voting a certain way is over the top. This is the type of talk that keeps the anger fueled...from both sides.

      My mother votes Democrat. She has no reason to be ashamed of herself. Take care and take it easy.

    • fpherj48 profile image

      Paula 

      3 weeks ago from Beautiful Upstate New York

      "Interesting," perhaps, Angie.....but I find most of the political comments on our site, more "amusing" than anything else. Moral Bankruptcy is a rampant, common trait among politicians-in-general. Period The End. It is merely a matter of degree and personal style.

      They are ALL skilled at LYING.....it is the very nature of the game. How else would anyone present one or a few ideas & ideals to an entire nation of incredibly diverse individuals & expect ALL to be in favor? Given some time in office, they ALL become greedy as well as drunk on power.

      Not a single one of us actually knows precisely how things are in terms of favorite candidates, nor does any of the guessing or speculation allow for assuring an outcome. I should think past facts would tell us this!! (Hillary (the world's most corrupt human being) was a "shoe-in" was she??? LOL)

      "...so many American want Trump out...." REALLY, Perry? Tell us please, WHO are these "Americans" you speak of? Have you encountered and spoken to hundreds of thousands of them? Do you read minds or just use wishful thinking? Don't know what part of our country you're from, don't care...but I can tell you what goes on in my own neck of the woods. It doesn't give me any real idea about a damned thing...nor can you know anything for certain. You just enjoy shooting off at the mouth.

      The Dems shouldn't be over-confident?? The Dems should be utterly ashamed of themselves, Period, the end! Their candidates aren't that great??? LMAO. The Left candidates are simple entertainment of the Comedy type. Pay attention! They're beginning to drop out like flies. The only place Uncle Joe belongs is a Luxury Nursing Home and Ms Warren may feel at home at the nearest Reservation.

      Bottom line? As loyal, voting Americans, we can only HOPE for the best (whatever and whomever that may be).....and we also should accept the fact that rationalizing by what we have seen, heard, discovered and understood for some time now.......WE, as a Nation are SCREWED. To our survival! Peace.

    • abwilliams profile image

      A B Williams 

      3 weeks ago from Central Florida

      Interesting.

    • hard sun profile image

      Don Shepard 

      3 weeks ago

      Hi A B Williams. You're welcome. I think the center voters of the Republican party were also left behind...for the right wingers filled with anger and hate to take over.

      No, Trump will not get my support. He is a morally bankrupt individual, wannabe dictator who will and break any law he can to milk a few extra out of anyone. He is a deliberately divisive, grade A con-man from where I sit. If a real conservative were to actually beat Trump in the primaries, which I know is highly unlikely especially since some states are refusing to even put any opponent on the ballot, he or she may garner my support depending on the Democrat candidate.

    • perrya profile image

      perrya 

      3 weeks ago

      Your analysis is just typical of the republicans. More of the self indulgence that it is more American and Democrats and on and on. Trump represents only 40%, while 60% will vote him out for a host of reasons. However, the Dems should not become over confident because none of their candidates are that great. But, so many Americans want trump out, they will vote just to do it. Trump should also not be over confident either.

    • The0NatureBoy profile image

      Elijah A Alexander Jr 

      3 weeks ago from Washington DC

      A B (my mother's initials) & Don, if our nation was constitutional in its governing the phrase "to form a more prefect Union" say we would not have nor allow any form of separations within this nation openly broadcasted.

    • abwilliams profile image

      A B Williams 

      3 weeks ago from Central Florida

      Hi hard sun, I know that you are directing your concerns to the author, but I'd just like to say, thanks for the reminder that "not all Dems are like this".

      I think we all realize that, but the centrist members of your party have been left behind, forsaken for the full embrace of the most extreme members of your party, the looney, illogical far left.

      I have one question for you and other moderates, will President Trump have your support in 2020?

    • hard sun profile image

      Don Shepard 

      3 weeks ago

      "Many Democrats openly state that a large percentage of the American people are just plain bad people — racist, bigoted, homophobic, Islamophobic, xenophobic, white nationalist, white supremacist, etc.

      How can you govern a nation and a people who you think are morally bankrupt?"

      I feel Trump is morally bankrupt. However, I'm 100% with you on this comment as it refers to today's Democrats. I also agree that Trump is likely to win 2020, unless the Democrats can up with someone who can counter their divisive message.

      Not all Dems are like this. Some of us are much more centric when it comes to these issues, and actually feel a bit betrayed by the party on these matters.

      We all need to stop painting Democrats as ALL being this way or Republicans as ALL being that way. We are ALL Americans, and this chord is not being struck by Trump or any of his potential 2020 opponents.

    • The0NatureBoy profile image

      Elijah A Alexander Jr 

      3 weeks ago from Washington DC

      I am led to disagree with you, Timothy, not so much on what you stated here but because of my realization of "What Time It Is" in relation to the world termination.

      First of all, Kim Clement (https://hubpages.com/religion-philosophy/Todays-So... said trump would not be impeached but someone like the Bible's David would replace him like David did Saul. I had not realized before that David and Soul are prophet types of the Second coming of Christ but after hearing what he said I realized that.

      Second is the easiest prophet type of the Christ's second coming is Daniel chapters 2, 3 & 4. In 2 Nebuchadnezzar questioned the future of things and was given in a dream that he was giving birth to the world's ending Mystery Babylon that is built upon man of all primary ethnics, Africans, Americans, Asians and Europeans (Revelation 17:15), who are not united like iron don't unite with clay.

      Chapter 3 reveals the last nation as a overheated furnace (Rev. 17:4-15) with Armageddon (Rev. 16:15-16) as the safe heaven for the 5 wise virgins (Matthew 25:1-13) and the Messiah.

      Then Chapter four reveals that last world ruling nation as the first to travel in space, with (military) branches around the earth, Zoos in most major cities and is to be cut down with Armageddon protected within her for replenishing the earth (Rev. 20:4-5) for Revelation 21's alternative world. You also see Trump Nebuchadnezzar typing Trump's self exalting behavior that caused him to live like any other animal, thus, the messiah should receive the government to govern the US with Revelation Chapter Twelve's (see my hub by that name) "Rod of Iron."

      If you noticed a week or so ago we could see the Hong Kong riots in real time and the Christ said in Matthew 24:27 "For as the lightning cometh out of the east, and shineth even unto the west; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be" therefore when put in that perspective we should know it is time for the Christ.

    • abwilliams profile image

      A B Williams 

      3 weeks ago from Central Florida

      Great article Timothy!

      The Dems are so full of anger and hate, they cannot even see straight, they can't be in charge of anything and should probably reconsider any heavy equipment they may be operating.

      Well done.

    • fpherj48 profile image

      Paula 

      3 weeks ago from Beautiful Upstate New York

      Timothy......Extremely well-presented and no doubt you make total sense. Sounds like you have a very realistic grasp on recent past, present and future attitude, outlook and hope of the American people.

      It's not necessary for me to waste my time or that of your readers, by pointing out the self-inflicted fatal mistakes and lack of direction or confidence in the cartoon characters running on the left. They, themselves do a wonderful job of exposing their lack of intelligence & common sense, their disdain for anything & everything that has ever made our nation the greatest in the world & their commitment to corruption, LIES, greed, power & control, at all costs.

      The American people are FAR from as stupid/helpless as the Liberals would love for them to be.

      I thank you for writing this interesting piece. Cheers to 2020, Paula

    • Readmikenow profile image

      Readmikenow 

      3 weeks ago

      Excellent article. I keep telling people on the left that in order for any of their candidates to win, they would have to appeal to someone like me so President Donald Trump would lose his base of support. The activities of the left only make me and people who think like me to support President Donald Trump even more. I believe the current group of Democrats has absolutely no idea what they are doing and it shows.

    • Wesman Todd Shaw profile image

      Wesman Todd Shaw 

      3 weeks ago from Kaufman, Texas

      Great writing. You've got a very good article here. I completely agree with you. I'm not sure I saw anything I could dispute.

      I especially agree that the self hatred is evident, extreme, and stupid. Why would I ever vote for a party that hates me for being a straight white male?

      I WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR THAT PARTY.

      And I never ever will.

      Trump isn't perfect. He's just the single best horse in the race. Best we've had in many, many years. I can hardly wait to cast my Trump 2020 ballot.

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