Why, Despite Trump, Republicans May Keep the Senate

Updated on February 27, 2019

Racism, misogyny, and just plain controversial. At a time when the GOP is diminishing in size and strength, the last thing they would need is a figure who stirs fury in the hearts and minds of voters. Unfortunately, that's exactly who carries the red baton, and if it weren't for the Democrats fighting fire with fire by nominating a criminal, Republican hopefuls in all races may have found themselves severely behind.

Sold Ground

The big blue wall certainly exists, but so does a big red wall. Northeast and Western states like New York, New Hampshire, California, and Washington are almost guaranteed to go to the Democrats without challenge. Midwest and Southern states including the Dakotas, Alabama, and Georgia, are almost guaranteed to stick with Republicans. These states are predictable enough for pollster and predictors to ignore when analyzing the senate race. About fifteen states have no senators up for reelection, meaning these states remain safe for the incumbent party.

That leaves a handful of states in play, the same states up for grabs in the presidential election.

As of Today

If the election were held right now, the Republicans would lose three seats but maintain control by a single seat. Youtube user Pedestrian Predictor did a nonpartisan analysis of each contestable senate race that he recently concluded with Hampshire. His analysis is consistent with RealClearPolitics, showing that the GOP keeps the Senate by just one seat.

He compares not only the current polls, but previous voting records, campaign funding, and the ideological preference of voters in each state, making each analysis incredibly thorough and comprehensive.

Who Will Win the Senate

See results

Lost Ground

On a net-seat scale, the Republicans are the losers. The Democrats nab at least three Midwestern seats: one in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Where RealClearPolitics and Pedestrian Predictor vary are in Nevada and Pennsylvania. RCP shows the GOP taking Nevada in whole, whereas PP shows the Republicans losing the junior Nevada seat but nabbing a seat in Pennsylvania. Both show the Midwest turning blue however.

The Republicans start from behind to begin with as 36 Democratic seats aren't up for reelection for, including the two independents caucusing with the Democrats. This is compared to just 30 for the Republicans.

Flipping Solid Red

Other's analyzing the Senate races see the opportunity for Democrats to take solid Republican states. CNN for example see Missouri as a toss-up, despite it's states as a reliable GOP stronghold. Predicting aggregate site FiveThirtyEight examines the same battleground states that RCP & PP examined, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, showing the states may go red.

What will determine the Senate results, much like the presidential race, is voter turnout. If early voting is any indication, we can expect record breaking turnout in a record breaking election. White people will assuredly be the largest demographic when all is said and done, with college educated and men and women leaning Clinton, and older Americans leaning Trump. In key states like Florida and Nevada, Hispanic turnout is key. We've already seen a lower turnout in early voting for black voters, a sign Clinton may not have the same level of support from this demographic as Obama did.

Senate Prediction Odds
Senate Prediction Odds | Source

Split Ticket

American voters dont plan to vote along party lines. There are Republicans for Clinton, and, to a lesser extent, Democrats for Trump. There are independent voters who steer clear of both parties. There are voters #FeelingtheJohnson and going for #JillNotHill. And, of course, the Mormons for McMullin. The point is, no one is getting exclusive attention this election round.

Maybe it's the massive unpopularity of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, or maybe it's the risk of having one party rule over the entire federal government. Either way American's are planning to split their tickets.

Of course, this plan has more support among Clinton voters, as 52% of them say they are somewhat or very likely to vote for Republicans for other offices come Tuesday. For Trump supporters, the love for the other side of aisle is less. A a third of Trump voters plan to vote exclusively for Republicans, and fifth say it's not likely they'll cast any votes for Democrats.

Time Will Tell

The only way to know for sure who will win the Senate is to wait until the clock expires on Tuesday. If the race for the White House is difficult to predict, then the Senate race is near impossible. There are too many variables to sway to outcome one way or another, and in the end it's entirely possible we have a split Senate, with 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans.

What can be said with a fair degree of certainty is that whatever party wins the White House, is most likely to win the Senate.

This content reflects the personal opinions of the author. It is accurate and true to the best of the author’s knowledge and should not be substituted for impartial fact or advice in legal, political, or personal matters.

© 2016 Drew Jeffers


    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    No comments yet.


    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, soapboxie.com uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: https://maven.io/company/pages/privacy

    Show Details
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the googleapis.com or gstatic.com domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)
    ClickscoThis is a data management platform studying reader behavior (Privacy Policy)