Ralph Lopez majored in Economics and Political Science at Yale University. He has been published in the Boston Globe and the Baltimore Sun.
Sanders Is Favored to Beat Trump
A University of Pennsylvania professor writing at the progressive news site OpEdNews.com has reported that gambling odds-makers have given Bernie Sanders a higher probability of beating Trump in November than Joe Biden, were Sanders to become the Democratic nominee. At the same time, concern that recent Biden gaffes indicate the onset of early stage dementia have broken out into the open among Democratic voters, including at the major Democratic party website DailyKos.
Steve Freeman, a business professor, writes for OpEdNews.com:
- If Sanders gets the nomination, he has a 48.5% probability of actually winning the presidency (21.7% / 44.7%).
- If Biden gets the nomination, he has only a 43.9% of actually winning the presidency (21.0% / 47.8%).
At Daily Kos, in a blog that went viral, the author wrote:
"This is not a post that I want to write, but I think its extremely important. I recently made a post about why Bloomberg is a horrible candidate, and I still think he would be totally unelectable. But in the face of possibly having Joe Biden as our nominee instead, I think this is a must-have discussion for Democrats."
Freeman uses the odds given at the online gambling outfit 5dimes.eu.
Joe Biden's Recent Public Gaffes
Biden recently appeared confused as to what office he was running for, declaring at a small rally that he was seeking support in his run for "senator." And in a television interview with Chris Wallace, Biden repeatedly called Wallace "Chuck," apparently confusing him for another newscaster, Chuck Todd.
The important Michigan primary is coming up this week, on Tuesday, March 10th.
"The steadfast, willful refusal of Dem political & media elites to address what is increasingly visible to the naked eye — Biden’s serious cognitive decline — is frightening indeed, not only for what it portends for 2020 but what it says about the ease of snapping them into line"
A week later Greenwald defended his position.
Politico has raised the issue as it is perceived in both Biden and Trump in "2020 becomes the dementia campaign."
In one instance, reporters for the popular online news channel Top Stories Today traveled to a Biden event to interview Biden supporters about how they felt about the issue. The supporters interviewed acknowledged it was a problem, but stuck with their support of Biden (video below.)
Political observers have noted that Trump catapulted himself to prominence by vanquishing a large field in the Republican primaries in the debates, including Jeb Bush. Trump made a reputation as a debate gutter-fighter by immediately ripping into Bush's brother for starting the Iraq War when he "knew" there were no weapons of mass destruction. A flustered Bush managed a weak response "I'm sick and tired of him going after my family." Soon after Bush dropped out of the race (video below.)
Although the Democratic primary debates have been fairly restrained, some Democrats fear no such gentlemanly instincts would constrain Donald Trump in debates, and that he would tear Biden to shreds.
Latest polls of head-to-head match-ups between Biden and Trump and Sanders and Trump are too close to be useful, as polls generally are useful only when multiple ones show similar wide spreads far outside the margin of error. Steve Freeman, in his article on gambler's odds in the election, notes that:
"money-lines predict election results better than polls or pundits, just as they do in sports and other areas."
C. W. on March 12, 2020:
Well, I am a stutterer and I know Joe Biden used to stutter and he may still have some problems with stuttering now when he speaks, however when he forgets names and other details when he speaks....yes he could be in cognitive decline. I'm voting for Bernie.
Virginia Allain from Central Florida on March 09, 2020:
Well, I've been noticing that these "gaffes" as the media so politely call them are quite disturbing. We need a president who has all his wits about him.