New study: Clinton Crushed by Trump in Rust Belt

Updated on January 25, 2017
An empty Rust Belt factory.
An empty Rust Belt factory. | Source

While mainstream media continues to beat their political tom-toms over Russia costing Hillary Rodham Clinton the presidency, a new analysis published today in the Tampa Bay Times has uncovered a credible reason for Clinton’s stunning loss.

Clinton failed to address vanishing Rust Belt jobs

The analysis conducted by the labor market advisory firm Emsi focusing on Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana and Pennsylvania found that 437 counties in those six states picked Donald J. Trump over Clinton. The study suggests Trump's economy (more jobs) message pierced the blue shield since those Rust Belt states most often vote for Democrats. All six states have a higher-than-average participation rates in blue-collar manufacturing, mining and agricultural industries. These states are home to significantly more Democrats than Republicans and some had not went for a Republican in 16 years. Nevertheless, Trump carried their counties by an indisputable landslide, winning 437 out of 489 counties.

The president elect’s pro-job message turned Rust Belt Democrats into Republican voters in regions where blue-collar industries are concentrated. Manufacturing in 93 of the counties Trump won is about three times higher than the national average, this according to Josh Wright, one of the researchers in charge of the study. Trump won all 93. Hindsight suggests Hillary Clinton should have inherently understood that in the Rust Belt, “it’s the economy stupid”. Many pundits say Clinton was distracted by her email scandals, others say she was simply out of touch, but month after month she failed to deliver that message. At the same time, Trump hammered his job creation message home at every turn, in nearly every campaign speech - and voters were listening.

"His message struck a chord with a lot of people in that region," Wright said. "There's a nostalgic sense of wanting to hold onto jobs that are hard to keep in the long term."

For his part Trump campaigned on bringing back American jobs in six Rust Belt states that have watched jobs go to right-to-work states and foreign countries. Meanwhile, Clinton chided Trump’s supporters and seemed to include many blue-collar Democrats in her “deplorables” speech, many who were already leaning Republican. While Clinton was calling Americans names, Trump did three things right, promising more jobs, more jobs, and more jobs. According to Wright, post-election exit polls and interviews suggest his strategy was right on the money.


    0 of 8192 characters used
    Post Comment

    No comments yet.


    This website uses cookies

    As a user in the EEA, your approval is needed on a few things. To provide a better website experience, uses cookies (and other similar technologies) and may collect, process, and share personal data. Please choose which areas of our service you consent to our doing so.

    For more information on managing or withdrawing consents and how we handle data, visit our Privacy Policy at: ""

    Show Details
    HubPages Device IDThis is used to identify particular browsers or devices when the access the service, and is used for security reasons.
    LoginThis is necessary to sign in to the HubPages Service.
    Google RecaptchaThis is used to prevent bots and spam. (Privacy Policy)
    AkismetThis is used to detect comment spam. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide data on traffic to our website, all personally identifyable data is anonymized. (Privacy Policy)
    HubPages Traffic PixelThis is used to collect data on traffic to articles and other pages on our site. Unless you are signed in to a HubPages account, all personally identifiable information is anonymized.
    Amazon Web ServicesThis is a cloud services platform that we used to host our service. (Privacy Policy)
    CloudflareThis is a cloud CDN service that we use to efficiently deliver files required for our service to operate such as javascript, cascading style sheets, images, and videos. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Hosted LibrariesJavascript software libraries such as jQuery are loaded at endpoints on the or domains, for performance and efficiency reasons. (Privacy Policy)
    Google Custom SearchThis is feature allows you to search the site. (Privacy Policy)
    Google MapsSome articles have Google Maps embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    Google ChartsThis is used to display charts and graphs on articles and the author center. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSense Host APIThis service allows you to sign up for or associate a Google AdSense account with HubPages, so that you can earn money from ads on your articles. No data is shared unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Google YouTubeSome articles have YouTube videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    VimeoSome articles have Vimeo videos embedded in them. (Privacy Policy)
    PaypalThis is used for a registered author who enrolls in the HubPages Earnings program and requests to be paid via PayPal. No data is shared with Paypal unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook LoginYou can use this to streamline signing up for, or signing in to your Hubpages account. No data is shared with Facebook unless you engage with this feature. (Privacy Policy)
    MavenThis supports the Maven widget and search functionality. (Privacy Policy)
    Google AdSenseThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Google DoubleClickGoogle provides ad serving technology and runs an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Index ExchangeThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    SovrnThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Facebook AdsThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Unified Ad MarketplaceThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    AppNexusThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    OpenxThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Rubicon ProjectThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    TripleLiftThis is an ad network. (Privacy Policy)
    Say MediaWe partner with Say Media to deliver ad campaigns on our sites. (Privacy Policy)
    Remarketing PixelsWe may use remarketing pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to advertise the HubPages Service to people that have visited our sites.
    Conversion Tracking PixelsWe may use conversion tracking pixels from advertising networks such as Google AdWords, Bing Ads, and Facebook in order to identify when an advertisement has successfully resulted in the desired action, such as signing up for the HubPages Service or publishing an article on the HubPages Service.
    Author Google AnalyticsThis is used to provide traffic data and reports to the authors of articles on the HubPages Service. (Privacy Policy)
    ComscoreComScore is a media measurement and analytics company providing marketing data and analytics to enterprises, media and advertising agencies, and publishers. Non-consent will result in ComScore only processing obfuscated personal data. (Privacy Policy)
    Amazon Tracking PixelSome articles display amazon products as part of the Amazon Affiliate program, this pixel provides traffic statistics for those products (Privacy Policy)